To mark UNESCO's World Teachers' Day 2011 the UIS released updated projections on the global supply and demand for primary teachers to 2015
Looming teacher shortages could undermine global efforts to achieve Education for All
School enrolment is on the rise in the developing world, but in many countries the supply of primary teachers is not keeping pace. According to the latest UIS projections, in countries where enrolment is expanding, 2 million new teaching positions will need to be created in order to meet the goal of Universal Primary Education (UPE) by 2015. Factoring in an attrition rate of 5% per year, the total number of primary teachers needed climbs to 5.4 million.
The latest projections are based on data from 112 countries where growth in enrolment is placing enormous pressure on already overburdened education systems as they try to achieve goals set out in the Millennium Development Goals and Education for All declarations.
What is the impact in sub-Saharan Africa?
In sub-Saharan Africa, where enrolment has soared in the past decade, teachers are in particularly short supply. Approximately 1 million new teaching positions need to be created in the region. Factoring in attrition, sub-Saharan Africa will need to recruit 350,000 new primary-level teachers per year up to 2015 to ensure that every child has access to quality education.
The most critical teacher gaps are found in Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger which must more than double the size of their teaching workforces by 2015, while the Central African Republic and Eritrea will need to triple their stocks if they are to achieve UPE.
What is the gender dimension?
In the drive to hire more teachers, ensuring gender balance among staff is critical. Countries with a higher proportion of female primary teachers are more likely to have higher enrolment rates for girls at the secondary education level.
UIS data indicate that the proportion of women in the teaching profession has grown globally, from 56% to 62% since 1990. Most women were recruited in South and West Asia, and East Asia and the Pacific. In sub-Saharan Africa, the change was marginal – from 40% to 42%.
The UIS releases new projections on global teacher shortages each year to help national and international policymakers identify and evaluate recruitment challenges and the budgetary implications associated with achieving UPE by 2015.
These projections will be presented at UNESCO Headquarters in Paris on World Teachers' Day (5 October). The theme of the 2011 celebration is Teachers for Gender Equality.
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